Almost exactly five years ago we penned a note with the title, Putting Up More Sail. It argued that, despite the high level of investor caution at that time, extraordinary policy support from central banks and a gradual healing of economies after the trauma of the financial crisis meant that, in our view, risk assets were well supported. As a result we were recommending higher allocations to equities in portfolios, for what was the third time in 12 months. We are now recommending the opposite – a step back from equities. This is warranted in our view both by the degree to which the economic cycle has moved on and by the less attractive valuations now on offer.
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